China plans assembly to disclose particulars of fiscal stimulus

A general view shows the skyline over the central business district in Beijing on February 28, 2023.

Jade Gao | Afp | Getty Images

BEIJING – China's parliament will hold a highly anticipated session from Nov. 4 to 8, state media said Friday, according to a CNBC translation.

Investors await news of the National People's Congress Standing Committee meeting, which is expected to announce details of any fiscal stimulus.

Last year, the committee's meeting in late October saw a rare increase in China's budget deficit from 3% to 3.8%, which was subsequently reported by state media.

This parliamentary meeting is an important part of the process if China wants to push ahead with fiscal or deficit adjustment again, said Bruce Pang, chief economist and head of research for Greater China at JLL.

He noted that China's stimulus measures last month highlighted the need for greater fiscal support.

Earlier this month, China's Finance Minister Lan Fo'an told reporters that there was scope to increase the deficit and issue more bonds. He noted at the time that significant changes would need to be processed before they were announced.

His comments came following a meeting of senior leaders in late September led by Chinese President Xi Jinping that called for strengthening fiscal and monetary policies.

The People's Bank of China has cut various interest rates and expanded real estate support policies. Chinese stocks have soared in the weeks since the late September sessions, with trading turning volatile in the absence of more concrete action.

Pang said the upcoming parliamentary session should confirm how the budget will be adjusted and announce any planned bond issuances.

Analysts have pushed back on expectations that large-scale fiscal stimulus would directly boost consumption, pointing instead that struggling local governments would likely get support first.

China's economy grew at an annual rate of 4.8% in the first three quarters of the year, slightly slower than the 5% growth in the entire first half of the year. Beijing is aiming for economic growth of around 5% for the whole of 2024.

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