The withdrawal of troops from South and North Korea by Russia and Ukraine is unlikely to worsen the regional battle

According to the South Korean military, smoke rises after North Korea blew up sections of inter-Korean roads on its side of the border between the two Koreas, seen from the South Korean side, Oct. 15, 2024, in this screenshot from a handout video.

South Korean Ministry of Defense

A potential entry of South and North Korean troops into the Russia-Ukraine war is unlikely to trigger a major conflict between the two Korean countries, experts said.

South Korea is reportedly considering sending intelligence personnel to Ukraine, according to Yonhap News.

This came after South Korea's Defense Ministry told NBC News that North Korea had sent up to 12,000 troops to fight on Russia's side.

Yonhap said South Korea could send military personnel from intelligence units “who could analyze North Korean battlefield tactics or participate in interrogations of captured North Koreans.”

The US confirmed on Wednesday that North Korean troops had been sent to Russia.

While South Korea has neither publicly confirmed nor denied its plans to deploy personnel to Ukraine, the country has reportedly warned that it would send weapons depending on the level of cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang.

This would also be a departure from Seoul's longstanding policy of not supplying weapons to countries in conflict, South Korean President Yoon Seok Yeol reportedly said.

Experts told CNBC that South Korea is unlikely to authorize the use of troops for combat operations in Ukraine.

“I do not expect the Yoon government to authorize the deployment of troops for actual combat operations on Ukrainian soil,” said Nah Liang Tuang, a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

Seoul's deployment of observers will not represent a significant escalation because Kiev's partners already have observers not involved in the fight in Ukraine, Nah said.

If Seoul sends military personnel to help Ukraine with intelligence and technical training, or even to help interrogate North Korean prisoners of war, this would motivate Ukraine's other allies to send their own trainers or military support specialists to help Ukraine .

“The messages we are seeing are likely aimed at deterring the actual deployment of North Korean troops from Russia to Ukraine. We don’t know yet what the impact will be,” said Naoko Aoki, a political scientist at the American policy think tank RAND.

Aoki said there is a possibility that personnel from the two Korean countries could come into contact should both sides send personnel, which could “significantly complicate the situation.” But that depends on how the North Korean troops are deployed, she added.

Nah said such an event could only occur if North Korean troops penetrate Ukrainian defense lines and encounter South Korean personnel embedded in Ukrainian units. “In such a case, South Korean troops would fire in self-defense, limiting the nature of such combat operations.”

Such a meeting will have little political impact as Moscow and Pyongyang have denied that North Korean troops are being used in the war.

Concerns from Korea

Tensions on the peninsula have increased in recent weeks, with North Korea blowing up connecting railways and roads after sending garbage balloons to South Korea earlier this year. The South is also accused of sending drones carrying propaganda leaflets over Pyongyang.

Although tensions have increased, experts believe there is no armed conflict in sight. “North Korea would not want to wage a war on the Korean Peninsula if some of its troops are fighting someone else’s war in Ukraine,” RAND’s Aoki said.

She stressed that Pyongyang's goal in supporting Russia is to deepen relations with Moscow so that the country can get what it needs from Russia, such as information for advanced weapons technology and combat experience.

“Pyongyang assumes that the setback from Moscow’s support will not affect the Korean peninsula,” RSIS’s Nah said. “I would argue that Kim Jong-un sees his relationship with Vladimir Putin in a very transactional light, while he is in a geostrategic silo that has nothing to do with the prospects of war on the Korean Peninsula.”