Publication: Layoffs, Commerce Talks, and the Fed’s Outlook – Actual Time Financial system

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On the mend, slowly

New uses for Unemployment benefit have relaxed in recent weeks but remain at historically high levels, suggesting that the labor market is recovering but is still far from recovering from the economic shock caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal forecast 923,000 new claims for the week ending August 15. This is another weekly decline, but it’s still well above the highest level seen before this year. Claims are crude substitutes for layoffs. Meanwhile, government-funded unemployment benefits of $ 600 per week ran out in late July. This caused payment to recipients of regular government programs – more than 15 million people by late July – to fall to the levels their states approved, which averages just over $ 300 a week, reports Eric Morath.

The labor department releases the latest damage data today at 8:30 a.m. ET.

WHAT YOU NEED TO WATCH TODAY

The European central bank publishes minutes of its July 15-16 meeting at 7:30 p.m. ET.

US unemployment claims The week ending August 15 is expected to decrease from 963,000 the week before to 923,000. (8:30 a.m. ET)

The Philadelphia Fed The August manufacturing survey is expected to fall to 20.0 from 24.1 in the previous month. (8:30 a.m. ET)

The Conference Board The leading economic index for July is expected to rise 1.1% from the previous month. (10 a.m. ET)

Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco Fed talks about the future of work at a virtual event hosted by her bank at 1:00 p.m. ET.

Japan’s consumer price index for July is at 7:30 p.m. ET.

TOP STORIES

A little less Conversation

The trade talks between the US and China will be delayed and not derailed. The negotiators plan to video the progress of the fulfillment of the conditions in the coming days Trade Agreement “Phase One” and US actions against Chinese tech companies, officials in both countries said. Talks were cast into doubt on Tuesday night when President Trump said he canceled a virtual meeting because he was upset about the way Beijing had dealt with the coronavirus pandemic. The two sides still haven’t picked a specific date and it wasn’t clear why, despite a delay giving Chinese officials more time to buy U.S. goods and show they are trying to meet the deal’s ambitious buying targets, Bob Davis and Bob Davis, to meet Lingling Wei report.

  • China strives for top scientific and technological knowledge in the US and other advanced countries through an expanding network of 600 Recruiting stations for talent Kate O’Keeffe and Aruna Viswanatha report worldwide.

Count down minutes

Federal Reserve officials saw the need for last month additional support for the economy. Minutes of the July 28-29 meeting of the Fed, released Wednesday, showed that officials believed more government spending would be needed to prevent a longer or deeper downturn amid difficulties in suppressing the coronavirus. A number of officials also believed further stimulus from the Fed may be needed. With interest rates already cut near zero, Fed officials could do so by specifying more precisely how long they will keep rates low, reports Nick Timiraos.

No problem. Legislators of both parties are increasingly concerned about the stalemate over a Coronavirus aid package.

The letter of the month is … W.. This is perhaps the most striking finding from Bank of America’s monthly survey of global fund managers. Only 17% expect the economy to recover in a V-shape. The plurality, around 37%, Now expect a W shape, also known as a double dip. That’s a 30% increase in the previous month’s survey. And 31% are now expecting a recovery similar to a U, reports Aaron Back.

Covid-19 seemed to be under control in Europe …

Coronavirus infections are picking up again in much of Europe, and governments are trying to prevent a full-fledged second wave of the pandemic – without resorting to the kind of broad lockdowns that devastated their economies this spring.

Red metal

Copper surged above $ 3 a pound for the first time in more than two years on Wednesday, prolonging a recent rally driven by steady Chinese demand and disruptions in global supply. The Industrial metal is used to manufacture everything from smartphones to homes. Prices fell earlier in the year as the coronavirus stalled the Chinese economy, but they have recently rebounded as manufacturing activity accelerated in China, Amrith Ramkumar reports.

Winner and Loser

Apple Inc. became the first US public company to be dwarfed on Wednesday Market value of $ 2 trillion, a staggering feat that highlights the iPhone maker’s preeminent role in the global economy. The stock has more than doubled since the March 23 low, driven by steady demand for the company’s devices and better-than-feared results in its core iPhone business as millions of Americans work from home, Amrith Ramkumar reports .

Finance directors write off the value of corporate assets such as planes, cruise lines, and movie theaters in response to changes in consumer behavior during the coronavirus pandemic. The 2,000 largest US companies by market capitalization – from oil companies to airlines to restaurant chains – were registered higher depreciation before taxes Mark Maurer reports that existing assets and investments are generating poor returns in the face of the economic downturn.

WHAT WE’LL READ

What if Congress and the White House fail to agree on a new stimulus package? Less direct aid to households and a likely blow to the economy. “To illustrate the potential macroeconomic impact of a reduction in support, we assume direct aid to households will decrease by $ 500 billion. We estimate the impact will be a deeper recession, a 4% loss in GDP. to 5% and an associated 4 would be a% to 5% increase in the unemployment rate, “write Sherman Robinson and Raul Hinojosa-Ojeda at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

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