Essay by Eric Worrall
h/t Dr. Willie Soon; Murray Watt, Australia’s Emergency Management Minister, has suggested forecasting models might need updating because of climate change.
Labor orders review of weather warning systems after criticism of Bureau of Meteorology
BoM systems under scrutiny after ex-tropical cyclone Jasper and Christmas Day storms in Queensland’s south-east
Australian Associated Press
Sat 30 Dec 2023 14.05 AEDT
The Australian emergency management minister, Murray Watt, has ordered a review of weather warning systems after criticism of the Bureau of Meteorology.
When Jasper made landfall residents of the Cairns suburb of Holloways Beach reported only receiving major flood warnings after already being isolated.
On the Gold Coast, one of the hardest hit regions in south-east Queensland, the mayor, Tom Tate, said it was “unforgivable” that a weather warning went out to residents after Christmas Day storms had already passed through.
“The models we have traditionally used are having to change because the climate is changing,” he said.
Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/dec/30/labor-orders-review-of-weather-warning-systems-after-criticism-of-bureau-of-meteorology
Parts of Australia like the Far North, Sydney and the Gold Coast have been hammered by a series of severe storms, leading to flash floods and sadly a few casualties. Despite the December rainfall record being broken in some places, in Australia most of us call this kind of weather “Summer”, though of course the usual suspects have been quick to blame climate change.
What is unusual about this year is the apparent level of incompetence displayed by the BoM.
Not producing storm warnings until after the fact, if this is what happened, is unforgivable.
The Aussie BoM publishes time lapse precipitation maps, which most of the time make it easy to spot if you are about to be hit by a storm. You don’t need to be a weather genius to figure out that if you see a massive storm front bearing down on your current location, you are about to experience bad weather.
Perhaps the BoM knew the storm was coming, but during the holiday season BoM staff monitoring the weather had trouble finding a manager to sign off on issuing the storm alert?
If you click the the BoM weather radar link you might see a browser security warning – WUWT uses website security, but the BoM website does not support HTTPS website security. There is a remote possibility that a cybercriminal might exploit this lack of BoM HTTPS security to mount a man in the middle attack if you click the link. Obviously you need to make up your own mind about this risk, but I regularly use the BoM site, so far without any problems.
Despite this criticism of the apparent inability of the BoM to issue storm warnings until after the storm has struck, the official government position is we can completely trust BoM forecasts of what the weather will be like a hundred years from now.