The US Capitol after the US Senate introduces a bill to end the government shutdown in Washington, DC, USA, November 10, 2025.
Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters
It will likely take some time for economic data releases, which were delayed during the government shutdown, to get back on track once Congress returns to work.
The reopening could happen as early as the end of this week, once final votes have taken place and President Donald Trump signs a spending stoppage bill.
From then on, however, it will be necessary for the various authorities, particularly in the ministries of labor and trade, to restart data collection and sharing. That likely means playing catch-up on key reports like nonfarm payrolls, the consumer price index, retail sales, spending and income, and a host of other metrics.
“The federal government shutdown has delayed nearly all releases of federal economic data for September and October,” Goldman Sachs economists Elsie Peng and Ronnie Walker said in a note to clients. “While the shutdown appears to be nearing its end, it will take some time for statistical offices to clear the backlog of publications.”
Assuming the government returns to work before the end of the week, Goldman expects the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics to release an updated release schedule early next week.
The BLS is responsible for the wage and salary report as well as the CPI and producer price index, both of which were scheduled to be released this week. Other reports from the bureau include import and export prices, the employment cost index, and the job vacancy and labor turnover survey.
Goldman economists expect October’s jobs report to be released soon after reopening, perhaps next Tuesday or Wednesday. “Aside from this, we expect that the release of other important data will be delayed,” they said.
That means November payrolls and inflation reports could be delayed by “at least a week,” Goldman said.
For commerce, the more relevant reports include personal spending and income, which includes the Federal Reserve’s main measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. In addition, there are retail sales, durable goods and quarterly gross domestic product value.
When the data freeze ends, reports will likely show more of the same when it comes to the economy – a slowing job market, inflation still above the Fed’s comfort level, and overall positive but not disastrous growth.
Fed officials have highlighted the inconvenience of not having regular data reports. But Chairman Jerome Powell recently said that alternative data shows the central bank really hasn’t missed much in terms of the macroeconomic picture.
“Although some key federal government data has been delayed due to the shutdown, the public and private sector data that remains available suggests that the outlook for employment and inflation has not changed significantly since our meeting in September,” Powell said at an Oct. 29 news conference. “Labor market conditions appear to be gradually cooling and inflation remains somewhat elevated.”
Economists polled by Dow Jones had expected October’s nonfarm payrolls report to show a loss of 60,000 jobs. While Goldman puts the decline at 50,000, overall data for the month suggests a slowdown.
Powell said the Fed’s estimates put the headline inflation rate at 2.8% for September, still well above the central bank’s 2% target but expected to gradually slow through 2026. The official PCE report is scheduled to drop on November 26th, and it is unknown if that will be the case.
As for the broader economy, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker expects 4% growth with incoming data for the third quarter. Goldman forecast fourth-quarter growth of 1.3%, an upward revision of 0.3 percentage points from the previous forecast, and for full-year earnings of 2%.
Comments are closed.