62 km² (+ 6%) web enlargement in a whole bunch of island coasts between the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean from 2000 to 2017 – watts with that?

From the NoTricksZone

By Kenneth Richard on August 30, 2021

A global analysis of 221 islands in the tropical Pacific and the Indian Ocean shows that the entire 21st century. The Maldives alone grew by 37.5 km² from 2000 to 2017.

For over three decades, we have been warned that “if the global warming trend is not reversed, entire nations could be wiped out by rising sea levels.”

But reality further undermines this disastrous narrative.

A 2019 global analysis of 709 islands in the Pacific and Indian Oceans found that 89% were either stable or growing in size and that no island was larger than 10 hectares (and only 1.2% of islands were larger than 5 hectares) had lost in size since the 1980s (Duvat, 2019).

And now a new analysis of trends after 2000 shows stable to expanding coastlines on a global scale for hundreds of islands in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, with over half of the net growth (39 km² by 62 km²) occurring from 2013 to 2017.

Holdaway et al., 2021

Between the oldest (1999–2001 and 1999–2002) and the most recent (2017) composite images, the land area of ​​the 221 atolls examined increased by 61.74 km² from 1007.60 km² to 1069.35 km², an increase of 6 ,1 %. Most of this increase, 38.89 km², occurred between 2013 and 2017. The global change in land mass of the atoll islands was largely the product of an increase in island area in the Maldives and the South China Sea (SCS), which account for 54.05 km² (87.56%) of the global increase in land area. Between 1999-2001 and 2017, the Maldives added 37.50 km² of land area, representing 60.74% of the global net increase in land area of ​​the atoll. Tokelau and Tuvalu, both small land masses (9.65 km2 and 25.14 km2, respectively), both increased by ∼7%, while the Marshalls, French Polynesia, Kiribati, Palau, Chagos, and the Federated States of Micronesia all increased less than 3% changed. At the national level, French Polynesia and Palau were the only countries with a net decrease in land area observed (-1.46 km² and -0.48% and -0.16 km² and -2.71%, respectively). “
Image source: Holdaway et al., 2021

Two further studies published separately by a team of scientists (Sengupta et al., 2021 and Sengupta et al., 2021) use aerial photographs from the 1940s (and 1960s and 1970s) of 104 and 71 reef islands in the equatorial Pacific (Micronesia, Gilbert Islands) to compare changes in the coastline over time.

The researchers found that the 104 and 71 islands studied had net coastal expansions of 3% and 2.45%, respectively, over the past 50 to 75 years.

Again, none of these studies support claims of a catastrophic sea level rise devouring the island coasts as a result of global warming.

Sengupta et al., 2021

“This study presents an analysis of Coastal changes on 104 coral reef islands of 16 atolls in the western equatorial Pacific state of the Federated States of Micronesia over a period coinciding with local sea level rise and a high frequency of storm events. Aerial images from the mid-1940s and 1970s were analyzed along with the latest high-resolution satellite images to document changes in the coastline and planned morphological adjustments on islands. Results revealed Accumulation was the predominant form of coastline change, with 46% of the coastlines studied showing a statistically significant increase, resulting in a net increase of 64.37 ha (~ 3%). of flat land in the entire archipelago. “
Image source: Sengupta et al., 2021

Sengupta et al., 2021

“The coastal positions of 71 islands of 3 atolls and 4 mid-ocean reef platforms were analyzed by compare historical Aerial photographs (from the 1940s and 1960s) and current satellite images over a period of time with a local sea level rise rate of ~ 2.2 mm / year. Show results ~ 47% of the coastlines were characterized by statistically significant accretion, resulting in a net increase of 274.07 ha (2.45%) in planar land area. “
Image source: Sengupta et al., 2021

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